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2000\u20132009 \u5e74\u7684 -0.17 \u7c73\u6c34\u5f53\u91cf\/\u5e74\uff0c\u52a0\u5267\u5230 2010\u20132019 \u5e74\u7684 -0.28 \u7c73\u6c34\u5f53\u91cf\/\u5e74\uff0c\u635f\u5931\u901f\u5ea6\u63d0\u5347\u4e86 65%\u301010\u3011\u3002\u66fe\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u51b0\u5ddd\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u5580\u5587\u6606\u4ed1\u5730\u533a\uff0c2010\u20132019 \u5e74\u4e5f\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86 -0.09 \u7c73\u6c34\u5f53\u91cf\/\u5e74\u7684\u5fae\u5f31\u8d1f\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u6240\u8c13&#8221;\u5580\u5587\u6606\u4ed1\u5f02\u5e38&#8221;\u5df2\u7ecf\u7ed3\u675f\u301010\u3011\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u51bb\u571f\uff08\u6c38\u4e45\u51bb\u571f\u5c42\uff09\u6301\u7eed\u6d88\u878d\u3002HKH \u533a\u57df\u51bb\u571f\u5728 21 \u4e16\u7eaa\u672b\u9ad8\u6392\u653e\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\u9884\u8ba1\u9000\u5316\u9ad8\u8fbe 81%\u301011\u3011\u3002\u51bb\u571f\u5728\u5ca9\u4f53\u4e2d\u8d77&#8221;\u80f6\u6c34&#8221;\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u80f6\u6c34\u5931\u6548\uff0c\u5ca9\u4f53\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u81ea\u7136\u4e0b\u964d\u301012\u3011\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u964d\u6c34\u6a21\u5f0f\u8f6c\u53d8\uff1a\u4e1c\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5 1979\u20132022 \u5e74\u964d\u96ea\u91cf\u51cf\u5c11 40\u201380 \u6beb\u7c73\/\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u96e8\u96ea\u6bd4\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u96e8\u6c34\u76f4\u63a5\u843d\u5728\u539f\u672c\u88ab\u79ef\u96ea\u8986\u76d6\u7684\u5ca9\u9762\u4e0a\u301013\u3011\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ICIMOD \u7684 Mohd Farooq Azam \u5728 8\u00b726 \u707e\u5bb3\u540e\u8868\u6001\uff1a&#8221;\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u707e\u5bb3\u9891\u7387\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u6bd4\u4ee5\u5f80\u4efb\u4f55\u65f6\u5019\u90fd\u66f4\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u53d8\u5316\u901f\u5ea6\u4e4b\u5feb\u8ba9\u5f53\u524d\u5e94\u5bf9\u52aa\u529b\u96be\u4ee5\u8ddf\u4e0a&#8221;\u30104\u3011\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bc1\u636e\u52a0\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u6307\u5411\u4e00\u4e2a\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u5224\u65ad\uff1a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6b63\u5728\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5730\u7834\u574f\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u51b0\u5ddd\u5728\u53d8\u8584\u3001\u51bb\u571f\u5728\u878d\u5316\u3001\u5ca9\u4f53\u652f\u6491\u5728\u53d8\u5f31\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u51b0\u5ca9\u5d29\u3001\u5830\u585e\u6e56\u6e83\u51b3\u3001\u94fe\u5f0f\u6d2a\u6c34\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u6761\u4ef6\u786e\u5b9e\u5728\u7d2f\u79ef\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f46\u8fd9\u662f\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684&#8221;\u5fc5\u7136&#8221;\u2014\u2014\u6982\u7387\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u5bbf\u547d\u8bba\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684&#8221;\u5fc5\u7136&#8221;\u2014\u2014\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u90fd\u5fc5\u7136\u53d1\u751f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. \u66b4\u9732\u5ea6\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684&#8221;\u5fc5\u7136&#8221;\u2014\u2014\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u5ffd\u89c6\u7684\u7b2c\u4e09\u56e0\u7d20<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u5c42\u6b21\u66f4\u5fae\u5999\uff1a\u5373\u4f7f\u6c14\u5019\u4fe1\u53f7\u6ca1\u6709\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4eba\u548c\u8d44\u4ea7\u8fdb\u5165\u5371\u9669\u533a\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u4e5f\u8db3\u4ee5\u8ba9\u707e\u5bb3\u635f\u5931\u7ffb\u500d\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u548c&#8221;\u707e\u5bb3\u662f\u5426\u66f4\u4e25\u91cd&#8221;\u9ad8\u5ea6\u76f8\u5173\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5c3c\u6cca\u5c14\u9053\u8def\u5bc6\u5ea6\u4ece 1998 \u5e74\u7684 13.7 \u516c\u91cc\/\u5e73\u65b9\u516c\u91cc\u589e\u52a0\u5230 2016 \u5e74\u7684 49.6 \u516c\u91cc\/\u5e73\u65b9\u516c\u91cc\uff0c\u4e09\u500d\u591a\u301014\u3011\u3002\u800c McAdoo \u7b49\u4eba 2018 \u5e74\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u964d\u96e8\u89e6\u53d1\u7684\u6ed1\u5761\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u9053\u8def 100 \u7c73\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u968f\u673a\u70b9\u7684\u4e24\u500d\u4ee5\u4e0a\u301014\u3011\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2011\u20132020 \u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u5c3c\u6cca\u5c14\u6ed1\u5761\u5bc6\u5ea6\u4ece 0.85 \u6b21\/\u5343\u5e73\u65b9\u516c\u91cc\u4e0a\u5347\u5230 3.34 \u6b21\/\u5343\u5e73\u65b9\u516c\u91cc\uff0c10 \u5e74\u95f4\u5171\u8bb0\u5f55\u8d85\u8fc7 7,000 \u8d77\u6ed1\u5761\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u9020\u6210 5,000 \u591a\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\u301015\u3011\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2024 \u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u4f1a\u7814\u7a76\uff1a1992\u20132020 \u5e74\u95f4\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u5730\u533a\u66b4\u9732\u4e8e\u6ed1\u5761\u7684\u5efa\u7b51\u533a\u4ece 9%\uff0846 \u5e73\u65b9\u516c\u91cc\uff09\u589e\u52a0\u5230 15%\uff08276 \u5e73\u65b9\u516c\u91cc\uff09\uff0c\u7edd\u5bf9\u9762\u79ef\u589e\u52a0\u4e86 513%\uff1b\u5176\u4e2d\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e09\u6765\u81ea\u539f\u6709\u5371\u9669\u533a\u7684\u65b0\u5f00\u53d1\uff0c\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u6765\u81ea\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u672c\u8eab\u8bf1\u53d1\u7684\u6ed1\u5761\u301016\u3011\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e00\u5c42\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u63d0\u9192\u6211\u4eec\uff1a\u5373\u4f7f\u6c14\u5019\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4ec5\u66b4\u9732\u5ea6\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u5c31\u8db3\u4ee5\u8ba9&#8221;\u707e\u5bb3&#8221;\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u7cdf\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u79d1\u5b66\u754c\u5bf9&#8221;\u707e\u5bb3\u589e\u52a0\u662f\u5426\u4e3b\u8981\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316&#8221;\u5b58\u5728\u6fc0\u70c8\u4e89\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e09\u3001\u5355\u6b21\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5f52\u56e0\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u8fb9\u754c<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56de\u7b54&#8221;\u8fd9\u6b21\u707e\u5bb3\u662f\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5417&#8221;\u65f6\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u4fdd\u6301\u4e25\u8c28\u3002ICIMOD \u5728 8\u00b726 \u707e\u5bb3\u540e\u660e\u786e\u8868\u6001\uff1a&#8221;\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6b63\u5728\u6539\u53d8\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u7684\u51b0\u5ddd\u3001\u79ef\u96ea\u3001\u51bb\u571f\u548c\u5c71\u5761\uff0c\u4f46\u5c31\u672c\u6b21\u5177\u4f53\u4e8b\u4ef6\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u626e\u6f14\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u89d2\u8272\u8fd8\u4e3a\u65f6\u8fc7\u65e9&#8221;\u30104\u3011\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u662f\u6709\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u539f\u56e0\u7684\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u4e25\u683c\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u5f52\u56e0\u7814\u7a76\u9700\u8981\u7528\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u6bd4&#8221;\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u6c14\u5019&#8221;\u548c&#8221;\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u7c7b\u6392\u653e\u7684\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u524d\u6c14\u5019&#8221;\u4e0b\u540c\u7c7b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u51e0\u5468\u5230\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5468\u671f\u30028\u00b726 \u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u5355\u6b21\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u6781\u4f4e\uff0c\u5f52\u56e0\u96be\u5ea6\u66f4\u5927\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u8ba9\u6b64\u7c7b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u4e0a\u5347 30% \u6216 50%\uff0c\u5177\u4f53\u5230\u67d0\u4e00\u6b21\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u7531&#8221;\u81ea\u7136\u53d8\u7387&#8221;\u9a71\u52a8\u3002Nature \u6742\u5fd7\u5728\u62a5\u9053 8\u00b726 \u65f6\u5f15\u7528\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6 G\u00f6ran Ekstr\u00f6m \u7684\u5224\u65ad\uff1a&#8221;\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u51b0\u5ddd\u4e0e\u51bb\u571f\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u878d\u5316\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u8fd9\u573a\u707e\u96be\u7684\u63a8\u624b\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4f46\u8981\u8ba9\u6982\u7387\u5f52\u56e0\u4e25\u8c28\u6210\u7acb\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u65f6\u95f4&#8221;\u301017\u3011\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5 8\u00b726 \u707e\u5bb3\u4e0e 2021 \u5e74\u5370\u5ea6\u67e5\u83ab\u5229\u30012025 \u5e74 Dharali \u7684\u7269\u7406\u673a\u5236\u76f8\u4f3c\uff08\u90fd\u662f\u9ad8\u4f4d\u51b0\u5ca9\u5d29+\u5830\u585e\u6e56\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u79cd&#8221;\u65b0\u578b\u707e\u5bb3&#8221;\u94fe\u672c\u8eab\u5904\u4e8e\u79d1\u5b66\u8ba4\u77e5\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u5f52\u56e0\u65b9\u6cd5\u5b66\u8fd8\u5728\u6210\u719f\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6240\u4ee5\u56de\u7b54\u8fd9\u4e00\u5c42\u8981\u907f\u514d\u4e24\u79cd\u504f\u5dee\uff1a\u2460\u76f4\u63a5\u8bf4&#8221;\u662f\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u9020\u6210\u7684&#8221;\u2014\u2014\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0a\u8fd8\u4e0d\u4e25\u8c28\uff1b\u2461\u8bf4&#8221;\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u65e0\u5173&#8221;\u2014\u2014\u540c\u6837\u7ad9\u4e0d\u4f4f\u811a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u80cc\u666f\u6761\u4ef6\u786e\u5b9e\u5728\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u6076\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u8868\u8ff0\u662f\uff1a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u8fd9\u6b21\u707e\u5bb3\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u653e\u5927\u5668\uff08&#8221;loaded gun&#8221;\uff0c\u501f\u7528\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u5e38\u7528\u6bd4\u55bb\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u662f\u5355\u4e00\u76f4\u63a5\u539f\u56e0\uff1b8\u00b726 \u4e8b\u4ef6\u66f4\u50cf\u662f\u591a\u91cd\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u65f6\u70b9\u7684\u53e0\u52a0\uff08\u9ad8\u4f4d\u51b0\u5ca9\u5d29+\u5830\u585e\u6e56+\u65e0\u524d\u671f\u9884\u8b66\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u56db\u3001\u672a\u6765\u8d8b\u52bf\uff1a\u9891\u7387\u3001\u5f3a\u5ea6\u4e0e\u65b0\u7c7b\u578b<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u76f4\u63a5\u56de\u7b54\u7528\u6237\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898&#8221;\u672a\u6765\u4f1a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u9891\u7e41&#8221;\u2014\u2014\u9ad8\u7f6e\u4fe1\u5ea6\u5224\u65ad\uff1a\u662f\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u533a\u5206\u9891\u7387\u3001\u5f3a\u5ea6\u548c\u5f71\u54cd\u8303\u56f4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u9891\u7387\uff1a\u5206\u6b67\u6bd4\u60f3\u8c61\u4e2d\u5927<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5173\u4e8e\u6ed1\u5761\u548c GLOF \u7684\u9891\u7387\u662f\u5426\u771f\u7684\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u5b58\u5728\u5206\u6b67\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5168\u7403 GLOF \u9891\u7387\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\uff1aVeh \u7b49\u4eba 2023 \u5e74\u5728 Nature Communications \u53d1\u8868\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u51b0\u789b\u6e56 GLOF \u5e74\u5747\u6b21\u6570\u4ece 1981\u20131990 \u5e74\u7684 5.2 \u6b21\u8dc3\u5347\u5230 2011\u20132020 \u5e74\u7684 15.2 \u6b21\uff0c30 \u5e74\u5185\u589e\u957f\u8fd1\u4e09\u500d\uff0c\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u6e29\u53d8\u5316\u5448\u7ea6 20 \u5e74\u7684\u6ede\u540e\u76f8\u5173\u301018\u3011\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4f46\u533a\u57df\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u66f4\u590d\u6742\uff1aMarc \u7b49\u4eba 2021 \u5e74\u5728 Landslides \u671f\u520a\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u5bf9\u5c3c\u6cca\u5c14\u897f\u90e8 1992\u20132018 \u5e74 26,350 \u8d77\u6ed1\u5761\u7684\u5206\u6790\u663e\u793a\uff0c30 \u5e74\u5185\u6ed1\u5761\u4e8b\u4ef6\u672c\u8eab\u6ca1\u6709\u663e\u8457\u9891\u7387\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u9891\u7387\u5e74\u9645\u53d8\u5316\u4e3b\u8981\u7531\u5b63\u98ce\u964d\u6c34\u7684\u53d8\u7387\u9a71\u52a8\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u660e\u786e\u6307\u51fa\uff1a&#8221;\u6ca1\u6709\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4fe1\u53f7\u5728\u6ed1\u5761\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e0a\u663e\u73b0&#8221;\u301019\u3011\u3002\u4e2d\u79d1\u9662\u9752\u85cf\u6240 2025 \u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e Science Bulletin \u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e5f\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c1990\u20132023 \u5e74\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5 GLOF \u9891\u7387\u5e76\u65e0\u663e\u8457\u4e0a\u5347\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0b\u6e38\u635f\u5931\u56e0\u66b4\u9732\u5ea6\u589e\u52a0\u800c\u52a0\u5267\u301020\u3011\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4e1c\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u9ad8\u6d77\u62d4\u5730\u533a\u5219\u5448\u73b0\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\uff1aZou \u7b49\u4eba 2026 \u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e\u300a\u56fd\u5bb6\u79d1\u5b66\u8bc4\u8bba\u300b\uff08National Science Review\uff09\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c1987\u20132020 \u5e74\u95f4\u6d77\u62d4 3000 \u7c73\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5730\u533a\u5e74\u6ed1\u5761\u4f53\u79ef\u589e\u52a0 5 \u500d\uff0c\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u51b0\u5ddd\u9000\u7f29\u3001\u51bb\u571f\u6d88\u878d\u548c\u96e8\u96ea\u6bd4\u4e0a\u5347\u301013\u3011\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u603b\u7ed3\u4e00\u4e0b\uff1a\u4f4e\u6d77\u62d4\u7684\u5b63\u98ce\u9a71\u52a8\u578b\u6ed1\u5761\u9891\u7387\u4e3b\u8981\u7531\u5b63\u98ce\u53d8\u7387\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c30 \u5e74\u5185\u6ca1\u6709\u663e\u8457\u8d8b\u52bf\uff1b\u4f46 GLOF \u5728\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u663e\u8457\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u9ad8\u6d77\u62d4\u65b0\u578b\u51b0\u5ca9\u5d29\u5728\u533a\u57df\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u4e5f\u5448\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5f3a\u5ea6\uff1a\u786e\u5b9a\u4e0a\u5347<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5f3a\u5ea6\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5219\u8981\u786e\u5b9a\u5f97\u591a\u3002Zhou \u7b49\u4eba 2024 \u5e74\u5728\u300a\u6574\u4f53\u73af\u5883\u79d1\u5b66\u300b\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u9884\u6d4b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5728 SSP2-4.5\uff08\u4e2d\u7b49\u6392\u653e\uff09\u548c SSP5-8.5\uff08\u9ad8\u6392\u653e\uff09\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u5730\u533a\u5230 2100 \u5e74\u51b0\u5ddd\u5c06\u635f\u5931 70%\u201386% \u7684\u8d28\u91cf\uff0c\u5c06\u65b0\u589e 2,722 \u00b1 207 \u4e2a\u51b0\u6e56\u301021\u3011\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u51b0\u6e56\u6e83\u51b3\u578b\u6ce5\u77f3\u6d41\uff08GLODF\uff09\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387\u6307\u6570\u5c06\u4e0a\u5347\u5230\u5f53\u524d\u7684 1.27\u20131.30 \u500d\u301021\u3011\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4e2d\u79d1\u9662\u9752\u85cf\u6240 2025 \u5e74\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u672a\u6765 GLOF \u6d2a\u6c34\u5f3a\u5ea6\u9884\u8ba1\u4e0a\u5347 27%\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e2d\u56fd\u5883\u5185\u4e0a\u5347 21%\uff0c\u5883\u5916\uff08\u5373\u5c3c\u6cca\u5c14\u3001\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u7b49\uff09\u4e0a\u5347 40%\u301020\u3011\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u65b0\u7c7b\u578b\uff1a\u51b0\u5ca9\u5d29\u662f\u6700\u503c\u5f97\u8b66\u60d5\u7684\u53d8\u5316<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6bd4\u5355\u7eaf\u7684&#8221;\u66f4\u9891\u7e41&#8221;\u66f4\u503c\u5f97\u8b66\u60d5\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u707e\u5bb3\u7c7b\u578b\u672c\u8eab\u5728\u53d8\u5316\u30028\u00b726 \u62c9\u82cf\u74e6\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e0e 2021 \u5e74\u67e5\u83ab\u5229\u30012023 \u5e74\u9521\u91d1\u30012025 \u5e74 Dharali \u5728\u7269\u7406\u673a\u5236\u4e0a\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u6027\u4e0d\u662f\u5de7\u5408\u2014\u2014\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u6d89\u53ca\u9ad8\u4f4d\u51b0\u5ca9\u5d29\u3001\u5830\u585e\u6e56\u3001\u94fe\u5f0f\u6d2a\u6c34\u8fd9\u79cd\u8fc7\u53bb\u76f8\u5bf9\u5c11\u89c1\u7684\u590d\u5408\u578b\u707e\u5bb3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2021 \u5e74\u67e5\u83ab\u5229\uff1aRonti \u5cf0\u7ea6 2,700 \u4e07\u7acb\u65b9\u7c73\u5ca9\u77f3\u51b0\u4f53\u5d29\u843d\uff0c\u89e6\u53d1\u4e0b\u6e38\u6d2a\u6c34\uff0c200 \u591a\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\u6216\u5931\u8e2a\u301022\u3011\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2023 \u5e74\u9521\u91d1\uff1a\u5357 Lhonak \u6e56 GLOF \u5f15\u53d1 Teesta III \u6c34\u7535\u7ad9\u6e83\u575d\uff0c179 \u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\u301023\u3011\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2024 \u5e74\u5c3c\u6cca\u5c14 Thame \u6751\uff1a\u56e0 GLOF \u6574\u4e2a\u6751\u5e84\u6d88\u5931\u301024\u3011\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2025 \u5e74\u5370\u5ea6 Dharali\uff1a8 \u6708 5 \u65e5 Kheer Gad \u6cb3\u8c37\u53d1\u751f\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5ca9\u51b0\u5d29\uff0c5 \u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3001\u7ea6 100 \u4eba\u5931\u8e2a\u301025\u3011\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ahmed \u7b49\u4eba 2026 \u5e74\u5728 Nature Communications \u53d1\u8868\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u628a\u8fd9\u79cd&#8221;\u51b0\u5ca9\u5d29+\u5830\u585e\u6e56+\u94fe\u5f0f\u6d2a\u6c34&#8221;\u5217\u4e3a\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u7684\u65b0\u5174\u4e3b\u5bfc\u707e\u5bb3\u7c7b\u578b\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u6bd4\u4e86 2021 \u5e74\u5370\u5ea6\u67e5\u83ab\u5229\uff08200 \u591a\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff09\u548c 2025 \u5e74\u745e\u58eb Blatten\uff08\u4ec5 1 \u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff09\u7684\u5e94\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c\u2014\u2014\u540e\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u76d1\u6d4b\u9884\u8b66\u548c\u53ca\u65f6\u64a4\u79bb\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u5316\u9669\u4e3a\u5937\u301026\u3011\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b0\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u5371\u9669\u5728\u4e8e\uff1a\u5b83\u7684\u6e90\u5934\u5728\u6d77\u62d4 5000 \u7c73\u4ee5\u4e0a\u51b0\u5ddd-\u57fa\u5ca9\u63a5\u89e6\u9762\uff0c\u5e38\u89c4\u6c34\u6587\u6c14\u8c61\u76d1\u6d4b\u8986\u76d6\u4e0d\u5230\uff0c\u4ece\u89e6\u53d1\u5230\u4e0b\u6e38\u6210\u707e\u7684\u7a97\u53e3\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u6709\u51e0\u5341\u5206\u949f\uff0c\u4f20\u7edf\u9884\u8b66\u7cfb\u7edf\u51e0\u4e4e\u65e0\u80fd\u4e3a\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u60c5\u666f\u5dee\u5f02<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u628a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6536\u7a84\u4e00\u70b9\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5728 SSP1-1.9\/2-4.5 \u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\uff08\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u5b9a\u76ee\u6807\u5b9e\u73b0\uff09\uff1aHKH \u533a\u57df\u5230 2100 \u5e74\u4ecd\u4f1a\u635f\u5931 30%\u201350% \u7684\u51b0\u5ddd\u4f53\u79ef\uff0cGLOF \u98ce\u9669\u663e\u8457\u4e0a\u5347\u4f46\u76f8\u5bf9\u53ef\u63a7\u301010\u3011\u301027\u3011\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5728 SSP3-7.0\/5-8.5 \u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\uff08\u5f53\u524d\u653f\u7b56\u8def\u5f84\u5ef6\u7eed\uff09\uff1a\u51b0\u5ddd\u635f\u5931\u53ef\u80fd\u8fbe 80%\uff0c\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5 4000 \u7c73\u4ee5\u4e0a\u9ad8\u6d77\u62d4\u707e\u5bb3\u5c06\u51fa\u73b0\u6839\u672c\u6027\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u51bb\u571f\u5927\u9762\u79ef\u6d88\u878d\u3001\u5ca9\u4f53\u5931\u7a33\u6210\u4e3a\u65b0\u5e38\u6001\u301027\u3011\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e94\u3001\u5f52\u56e0\u4e89\u8bae\u7684\u5b9e\u8d28<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e0d\u5c11\u8bfb\u8005\u4f1a\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\uff0c\u524d\u6587\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5b58\u5728\u81ea\u76f8\u77db\u76fe\uff1a\u4e00\u8fb9\u8bf4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u662f&#8221;\u9ad8\u7f6e\u4fe1\u5ea6&#8221;\u653e\u5927\u5668\uff0c\u4e00\u8fb9\u8bf4 30 \u5e74\u5185\u6ed1\u5761\u9891\u7387\u6ca1\u6709\u663e\u8457\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u77db\u76fe\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5f52\u56e0\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e89\u8bae\u7684\u5b9e\u8d28\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4e09\u53e5\u8bdd\u6982\u62ec\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u7269\u7406\u80cc\u666f\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u660e\u786e\u7684\u2014\u2014HKH \u5347\u6e29\u662f\u5168\u7403\u4e24\u500d\u3001\u51b0\u5ddd\u52a0\u901f\u9000\u7f29\u3001\u51bb\u571f\u5927\u9762\u79ef\u6d88\u878d\u3001\u79ef\u96ea\u65e5\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u5b9a\u91cf\u89c2\u6d4b\u4e8b\u5b9e\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4f46\u6ed1\u5761\/GLOF \u9891\u7387\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u4fe1\u53f7\u5374\u6a21\u7cca\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e0e\u66b4\u9732\u5ea6\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u53d8\u5316\u53e0\u52a0\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u300230 \u5e74\u95f4\u5c3c\u6cca\u5c14\u9053\u8def\u5bc6\u5ea6\u7ffb\u4e86\u4e09\u500d\u591a\uff0c\u5efa\u7b51\u533a\u5728\u6ed1\u5761\u5371\u9669\u533a\u6269\u5f20\u4e86\u6570\u500d\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u4fe1\u53f7\u88ab&#8221;\u6df9\u6ca1&#8221;\u5728\u66b4\u9732\u5ea6\u4fe1\u53f7\u91cc\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\u2014\u2014\u53ea\u662f&#8221;\u707e\u5bb3\u589e\u52a0&#8221;\u7684\u6df7\u5408\u4fe1\u53f7\u4e2d\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u548c\u66b4\u9732\u5ea6\u90fd\u5728\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u5206\u5c3a\u5ea6\u770b\u5f85\uff1a\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u957f\u671f\u3001\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff1a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u5e95\u5c42\u9a71\u52a8\uff1b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u77ed\u671f\u3001\u533a\u57df\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff1a\u5355\u6b21\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u8bf1\u56e0\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5c40\u5730\u5730\u8d28+\u6c14\u5019\u80cc\u666f+\u66b4\u9732\u5ea6\u53e0\u52a0\u7684\u590d\u5408\u4f5c\u7528\uff1b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6781\u7f55\u89c1\u7684\u9ad8\u6d77\u62d4\u65b0\u578b\u707e\u5bb3\uff08\u51b0\u5ca9\u5d29\uff09\uff1a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u9000\u5316\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u66f4\u76f4\u63a5\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6240\u4ee5\u56de\u7b54&#8221;\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u4e3b\u56e0&#8221;\u65f6\uff0c\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u56de\u5e94\u662f\u5206\u5c3a\u5ea6\u2014\u2014\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7ed9\u4e00\u4e2a yes\/no\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u516d\u3001\u5e94\u5bf9\u8def\u5f84\uff1a\u76d1\u6d4b\u9884\u8b66\u7684\u53ef\u884c\u8def\u5f84<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u628a\u89c6\u7ebf\u4ece&#8221;\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u5fc5\u7136&#8221;\u5207\u6362\u5230&#8221;\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u51cf\u5c11\u4f24\u4ea1&#8221;\uff0c\u95ee\u9898\u4f1a\u66f4\u6709\u5efa\u8bbe\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ahmed \u7b49\u4eba 2026 \u5e74\u5728 Nature Communications \u7684\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5173\u952e\u5bf9\u7167\uff1a2025 \u5e74\u745e\u58eb Blatten \u53d1\u751f\u4e0e 2021 \u5e74\u67e5\u83ab\u5229\u89c4\u6a21\u76f8\u5f53\u7684\u51b0\u5ca9\u5d29\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u6574\u4e2a\u6751\u5e84\u88ab\u57cb\u4f46\u4ec5 1 \u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002\u533a\u522b\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u707e\u5bb3\u672c\u8eab\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u5e94\u5bf9\u4f53\u7cfb\u301026\u3011\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Blatten \u5728\u4e8b\u4ef6\u524d\u6570\u5929\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u5c71\u5761\u5f02\u5e38\u6d3b\u52a8\u8ff9\u8c61\uff0c\u90e8\u7f72\u4e86\u96f7\u8fbe\u548c\u5730\u9762\u4f20\u611f\u5668\uff1b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5f53\u659c\u5761\u52a0\u901f\u79fb\u52a8\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u786e\u8ba4\u540e\uff0c\u7ea6 300 \u540d\u5c45\u6c11\u88ab\u63d0\u524d\u758f\u6563\uff1b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u707e\u5bb3\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\u5168\u6751\u5df2\u64a4\u79bb\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u800c 2021 \u5e74\u67e5\u83ab\u5229\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u8fd0\u884c\u76d1\u6d4b\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u504f\u8fdc\u8c37\u5730\u3002\u4e8b\u540e\u56de\u770b\u536b\u661f\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u73b0\u5d29\u584c\u524d\u6570\u6708\u5df2\u6709\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u6301\u7eed\u76d1\u6d4b\uff0c\u9519\u5931\u4e86\u9884\u8b66\u7a97\u53e3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u81ea 2019 \u5e74\u8d77\u5b9e\u65bd\u7684&#8221;\u51b0\u6e56\u7ba1\u7406\u7cfb\u7edf\uff08GLMS\uff09&#8221;\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u501f\u9274\u7684\u5de5\u7a0b+\u9884\u8b66+\u6cbb\u7406\u7ec4\u5408\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u4e2d\u79d1\u9662\u9752\u85cf\u6240 2025 \u5e74\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\u301020\u3011\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2019 \u5e74 GLMS \u5b9e\u65bd\u540e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5883\u5185 4 \u6b21 GLOF \u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e2d\u4ec5 1 \u6b21\u9020\u6210\u4e0b\u6e38\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u5176\u4f59\u901a\u8fc7\u63d0\u524d\u758f\u6563\u5b9e\u73b0\u96f6\u4f24\u4ea1\uff1b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5e72\u9884\u63aa\u65bd\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u63a7\u5236\u6027\u6cc4\u6c34\u3001\u52a0\u56fa\u5824\u575d\uff09\u53ef\u5c06\u672a\u6765 GLOF \u6d2a\u6c34\u5f3a\u5ea6\u964d\u4f4e 24%\uff0c\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u5883\u5916\uff08\u5c3c\u6cca\u5c14\u3001\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u7b49\uff09\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u8fbe 29%\uff1b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4f46\u8de8\u5883\u9884\u8b66\u673a\u5236\u4ecd\u5b58\u5728\u660e\u663e\u7f3a\u53e3\u2014\u2014ICIMOD \u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u6574\u4e2a\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u5730\u533a\u4ec5\u6709 3 \u5957\u57fa\u4e8e\u4f20\u611f\u5668\u7684 GLOF \u76d1\u6d4b\u7cfb\u7edf\uff082 \u5957\u5728\u5c3c\u6cca\u5c14\uff09\uff0c\u65e0\u4e00\u5957\u8de8\u5883\u8fd0\u884c\u301028\u3011\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">8\u00b726 \u62c9\u82cf\u74e6\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c3c\u6cca\u5c14\u56fd\u5bb6\u51cf\u707e\u5c40\u534f\u8c03\u4eba Pradip Kumar Koirala \u5728\u6210\u90fd\u5c71\u5730\u707e\u5bb3\u4e0e\u73af\u5883\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u73b0\u573a\u660e\u786e\u8868\u793a\uff1a&#8221;\u707e\u524d\u6211\u4eec\u53cc\u65b9\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u6536\u5230\u4efb\u4f55\u9884\u8b66\u4fe1\u606f&#8221;\u301029\u3011\u3002\u8fd9\u51f8\u663e\u4e86\u8de8\u5883\u707e\u5bb3\u9884\u8b66\u4ece\u79d1\u5b66\u5171\u8bc6\u8d70\u5411\u5236\u5ea6\u5b89\u6392\u7684\u6ede\u540e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e03\u3001\u56de\u5230\u6700\u521d\u7684\u95ee\u9898<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u73b0\u5728\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ed9\u7528\u6237\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u6574\u56de\u7b54\u4e86\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>8\u00b726 \u8fd9\u6b21\u707e\u5bb3\u662f&#8221;\u5076\u53d1&#8221;\u8fd8\u662f&#8221;\u5fc5\u7136&#8221;\uff1f<\/strong>\u00a0\u90fd\u4e0d\u662f\u3002\u5730\u8d28\u4e0a\u5b83\u4e0d\u662f\u5076\u53d1\u2014\u2014\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u51fa\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e8b\u662f\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u7684\u9ad8\u6982\u7387\uff1b\u5f52\u56e0\u4e0a\u5b83\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u7eaf\u5fc5\u7136\u2014\u2014\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u80cc\u666f\u653e\u5927\u5668\uff0c\u4f46\u5355\u6b21\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u89e6\u53d1\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5c40\u5730\u51b0\u5ca9\u7ed3\u6784\u5931\u7a33+\u4e34\u65f6\u5830\u585e\u6e56\u6e83\u51b3\u7684\u590d\u5408\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709&#8221;\u6273\u673a\u5c31\u662f\u6c14\u5019&#8221;\u7684\u4e25\u683c\u8bc1\u636e\u3002\u4e25\u8c28\u7684\u56de\u7b54\u662f\u4e2d\u95f4\u5730\u5e26\uff1a\u5728\u6301\u7eed\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u7269\u7406\u6761\u4ef6\u5728\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u6076\u5316\uff0c\u9891\u7387\u3001\u5f3a\u5ea6\u3001\u5f71\u54cd\u8303\u56f4\u90fd\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4f46\u5177\u4f53\u5230\u67d0\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u4ecd\u6709\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5c40\u5730\u89e6\u53d1\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u672a\u6765\u4f1a\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u9891\u7e41\u5417\uff1f<\/strong>\u00a0\u662f\uff0c\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u5206\u5c42\u7406\u89e3\uff1a\u4f4e\u6d77\u62d4\u5b63\u98ce\u578b\u6ed1\u5761\u9891\u7387\u4e3b\u8981\u7531\u5b63\u98ce\u53d8\u7387\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c30 \u5e74\u5185\u6ca1\u6709\u663e\u8457\u8d8b\u52bf\uff1bGLOF \u5728\u5168\u7403\u5df2\u4e0a\u5347\u4e09\u500d\uff0c\u4e14\u672a\u6765\u6d2a\u6c34\u5f3a\u5ea6\u8fd8\u8981\u518d\u589e\u52a0 27%\u201340%\uff1b\u9ad8\u4f4d\u51b0\u5ca9\u5d29\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b0\u578b\u707e\u5bb3\u5728\u533a\u57df\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5df2\u663e\u793a\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u662f\u6700\u503c\u5f97\u8b66\u60d5\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u5bf9\u666e\u901a\u8bfb\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u66f4\u503c\u5f97\u8bb0\u4f4f\u7684\u4e0d\u662f&#8221;\u4f1a\u66f4\u591a&#8221;\u8fd9\u79cd\u53e3\u53f7\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e09\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u662f\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u957f\u671f\u53cd\u9988\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u77ed\u671f\u5929\u6c14\u5f02\u5e38\uff1b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u707e\u5bb3\u4f24\u4ea1\u4e3b\u8981\u4e0d\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u707e\u5bb3\u672c\u8eab\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u800c\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u76d1\u6d4b\u9884\u8b66\u662f\u5426\u5230\u4f4d\u3001\u793e\u533a\u662f\u5426\u4e86\u89e3\u98ce\u9669\u3001\u8de8\u5883\u5408\u4f5c\u662f\u5426\u987a\u7545\u2014\u2014Blatten 1 \u6b7b\u548c\u67e5\u83ab\u5229 200+ \u6b7b\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\u5df2\u7ecf\u8bc1\u660e\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff1b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8de8\u5883\u707e\u5bb3\u6ca1\u6709&#8221;\u5c40\u5916\u4eba&#8221;\u2014\u2014\u62c9\u82cf\u74e6\u7684\u6d2a\u6c34\u4e00\u8def\u4e0b\u6cc4\u5230\u5370\u5ea6\u6bd4\u54c8\u5c14\uff0c\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u7684\u51b0\u6e56\u548c\u51b0\u5ddd\u4f9b\u7ed9\u7740\u4e9a\u6d32 10 \u6761\u4e3b\u8981\u6cb3\u6d41\u7684\u6c34\u6e90\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd 16 \u4ebf\u4eba\u53e3\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5e94\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\u7684\u6760\u6746\uff0c\u4e0d\u5728&#8221;\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316&#8221;\u7684\u8fa9\u8bba\u91cc\uff0c\u800c\u5728&#8221;\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u50cf Blatten \u90a3\u6837\u63d0\u524d\u8bc6\u522b\u3001\u63d0\u524d\u64a4\u79bb\u3001\u8de8\u5883\u534f\u540c&#8221;\u7684\u5de5\u7a0b\u91cc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u53c2\u8003\u6765\u6e90<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u30101\u3011Al Jazeera. &#8220;Swept away&#8221;: Nepal families search for relatives after devastating floods. 2026-08-26.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2026\/8\/26\/swept-away-nepal-families-search-for-relatives-after-devastating-floods\">https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2026\/8\/26\/swept-away-nepal-families-search-for-relatives-after-devastating-floods<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u30102\u3011USGS Event Assessment, Lirung\/Lhende Khola, 2026-08-26.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/earthquake.usgs.gov\/earthquakes\/eventpage\/us7000n4x2\">https:\/\/earthquake.usgs.gov\/earthquakes\/eventpage\/us7000n4x2<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u30103\u3011eNCA. What experts know so far about Nepal&#8217;s deadly floods. 2026-08-27.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.enca.com\/opinion\/what-experts-know-so-far-about-nepals-deadly-floods\">https:\/\/www.enca.com\/opinion\/what-experts-know-so-far-about-nepals-deadly-floods<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u30104\u3011ICIMOD Press Release. Major flash flood sweeps through Nepal&#8217;s Rasuwa district. 2026-08-26.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.icimod.org\/press-release\/major-flash-flood-sweeps-through-nepals-rasuwa-district-raising-fears-of-further-downstream-flooding\">https:\/\/www.icimod.org\/press-release\/major-flash-flood-sweeps-through-nepals-rasuwa-district-raising-fears-of-further-downstream-flooding<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u30105\u3011Science Media Centre. 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The deadly forces behind Nepal&#8217;s Himalayan disasters. 2026.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/timesofindia.indiatimes.com\/world\/south-asia\/the-deadly-forces-behind-nepals-himalayan-disasters\/articleshow\/133614019.cms\">https:\/\/timesofindia.indiatimes.com\/world\/south-asia\/the-deadly-forces-behind-nepals-himalayan-disasters\/articleshow\/133614019.cms<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u30108\u3011Onlinekhabar. Himalayas experiencing rapid glacier mass loss, says ICIMOD study. 2023-06-21.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/english.onlinekhabar.com\/himalayas-glacier-loss-icimod.html\">https:\/\/english.onlinekhabar.com\/himalayas-glacier-loss-icimod.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u30109\u3011ICIMOD. The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment (2019).&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.icimod.org\/himalaya-assessment\/\">https:\/\/www.icimod.org\/himalaya-assessment\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u301010\u3011ICIMOD. HI-WISE Report: Water, Ice, Society, and Ecosystems in the Hindu Kush Himalaya. 2023-06.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.icimod.org\/press-release\/landmark-report-on-impacts-of-disappearing-snow-and-ice-in-the-hindu-kush-himalaya-current-emissions-path-threatens-two-billion-people-and-is-accelerating-species-extinction\/\">https:\/\/www.icimod.org\/press-release\/landmark-report-on-impacts-of-disappearing-snow-and-ice-in-the-hindu-kush-himalaya-current-emissions-path-threatens-two-billion-people-and-is-accelerating-species-extinction\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u301011\u3011Hindu Kush Mountain Range. Climate change projections (Wikipedia compilation of ICIMOD data).&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/docslib.org\/doc\/2625567\/hindu-kush-mountain-range\">https:\/\/docslib.org\/doc\/2625567\/hindu-kush-mountain-range<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u301012\u3011ABC News. Nepal disaster exposes threat of living on shifting ground. 2026-08-30.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2026-08-30\/nepal-flood-exposes-risk-as-glaciers-melt-and-permafrost-thaws\/107090534\">https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2026-08-30\/nepal-flood-exposes-risk-as-glaciers-melt-and-permafrost-thaws\/107090534<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u301013\u3011Zou C, et al. Elevation-dependent landsliding driven by climate change in the eastern Himalayan syntaxis. National Science Review, 2026.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/nsr\/advance-article\/doi\/10.1093\/nsr\/nwag238\/8661866\">https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/nsr\/advance-article\/doi\/10.1093\/nsr\/nwag238\/8661866<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u301014\u3011McAdoo BG, et al. Roads and landslides in Nepal: how development affects environmental risk. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2018.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/nhess.copernicus.org\/articles\/18\/3203\/2018\/\">https:\/\/nhess.copernicus.org\/articles\/18\/3203\/2018\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u301015\u3011GeoInfra Nepal. Build Resilience Against Landslides.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/geoinfra.com.np\/?p=448\">https:\/\/geoinfra.com.np\/?p=448<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u301016\u3011Chiang S, et al. Urbanization Increases Landslide Exposure across the Himalaya. AGU 2024.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/ui.adsabs.harvard.edu\/abs\/2024AGUFMGC41C..06C\/abstract\">https:\/\/ui.adsabs.harvard.edu\/abs\/2024AGUFMGC41C..06C\/abstract<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u301017\u3011Nature. Glacier collapse caused Nepal&#8217;s deadly flash flood \u2014 a sign of things to come? 2026-08-28.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-026-02716-w\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-026-02716-w<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u301018\u3011Veh G, et al. High frequency of moraine-dammed lake outburst floods driven by global warming. Nature Communications, 2023.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-025-67650-3\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-025-67650-3<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u301019\u3011Mu\u00f1oz-Torrero Manchado A, et al. Three decades of landslide activity in western Nepal: new insights into trends and climate drivers. Landslides, 2021.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s10346-021-01632-6\">https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s10346-021-01632-6<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u301020\u3011Wang X, Chen W, Zhang G, et al. Mitigating future glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalaya. Science Bulletin, 2026 (vol 71, no 1, 159-171).&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S2095927325011521\">https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S2095927325011521<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u301021\u3011Zhou B, Zou Q, Jiang H, et al. A novel framework for predicting glacial lake outburst debris flows in the Himalayas amidst climate change. Science of the Total Environment, 2024.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0048969724030180\">https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0048969724030180<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u301022\u3011Eos. Development and Climate Change Contribute to a Himalayan Tragedy. 2021-02.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/newspack-dev.eos.org\/?p=155436\">https:\/\/newspack-dev.eos.org\/?p=155436<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u301023\u3011Atalayar. Nepal is entering the second day of this tragedy, amid rescue operations, mourning and uncertainty. 2026-08-27.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/atalayar.com\/en\/articulo\/society\/nepal-is-entering-the-second-day-of-this-tragedy-amid-rescue-operations-mourning-and-uncertainty\/20260827130929228737.html\">https:\/\/atalayar.com\/en\/articulo\/society\/nepal-is-entering-the-second-day-of-this-tragedy-amid-rescue-operations-mourning-and-uncertainty\/20260827130929228737.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u301024\u3011Himalayan News Network. Himalayan Glacier Melt and Rising Mountaineering Risks Claim Lives Amid Climate Change.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/himalayannewsnetwork.com\/earth\/himalayan-glacier-melt-and-rising-mountaineering-risks-claim-lives-amid-climate-change\">https:\/\/himalayannewsnetwork.com\/earth\/himalayan-glacier-melt-and-rising-mountaineering-risks-claim-lives-amid-climate-change<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u301025\u3011Times of India. At 2\u00b0C warming, only 25% of Hindu Kush\u2013Himalayan glaciers will survive, warns report. 2025.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/timesofindia.indiatimes.com\/city\/dehradun\/at-2c-warming-only-25-of-hindu-kushhimalayan-glaciers-will-survive-warns-report\/articleshow\/125167189.cms\">https:\/\/timesofindia.indiatimes.com\/city\/dehradun\/at-2c-warming-only-25-of-hindu-kushhimalayan-glaciers-will-survive-warns-report\/articleshow\/125167189.cms<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u301026\u3011Ahmed R, Bhardwaj A, Sam L, et al. Ice-rock avalanches in a warming Himalaya indicate pathways toward effective preparedness. Nature Communications, 2026.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43247-026-03352-y\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43247-026-03352-y<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u301027\u3011ICCI. State of the Cryosphere 2025.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/stateofthecryosphere\">https:\/\/iccinet.org\/stateofthecryosphere<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u301028\u3011weADAPT. Glacial lake outburst floods: A shared risk across the Hindu Kush Himalayas.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.weadapt.org\/knowledge-base\/adaptation-without-borders\/glacial-lake-outburst-floods-a-shared-risk-across-the-hindu-kush-himalayas\">https:\/\/www.weadapt.org\/knowledge-base\/adaptation-without-borders\/glacial-lake-outburst-floods-a-shared-risk-across-the-hindu-kush-himalayas<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u301029\u3011\u817e\u8baf\u65b0\u95fb. \u897f\u85cf\u5409\u9686\u906d\u53d7\u6ce5\u77f3\u6d41\u707e\u5bb3\uff0c\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u5c71\u533a\u8de8\u5883\u707e\u5bb3\u9884\u8b66\u8fd8\u6709\u591a\u8fdc\uff1f2026-08-29.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/news.qq.com\/rain\/a\/20260829A03WAK00\">https:\/\/news.qq.com\/rain\/a\/20260829A03WAK00<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u6838\u5fc3\u5224\u65ad \u628a 8 \u6708 26 \u65e5\u62c9\u82cf\u74e6\u7684\u707e\u5bb3\u653e\u8fdb&#8221;\u5076\u53d1&#8221;\u6216&#8221;\u5fc5\u7136&#8221;\u4e24\u4e2a\u7b50\u91cc\u90fd\u4e0d\u4e25\u8c28\u3002\u559c\u9a6c\u62c9\u96c5\u5c71\u533a\u51fa\u5730\u8d28\u707e\u5bb3\u4ece\u6765\u4e0d\u662f\u5076\u53d1\u2014\u2014\u677f\u5757\u6784\u9020\u3001\u6df1\u5207\u6c9f\u8c37\u3001\u65ad\u5c42\u5e26 8 &#46;&#46;&#46;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[217,218,219],"class_list":["post-6434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-217","tag-218","tag-219"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gemchen.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6434","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gemchen.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gemchen.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gemchen.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gemchen.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6434"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/gemchen.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6434\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6436,"href":"https:\/\/gemchen.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6434\/revisions\/6436"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gemchen.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6434"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gemchen.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6434"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gemchen.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6434"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}